Rick Jackson wins.
Rick Jackson wins the Republican runoff for Governor. Defeated Burt Jones. Called with 100% confidence at 84 of 159 counties (~8:12 PM ET).
The model named the winner.
Our pre-election model (Victory Modeling) projected Jackson +2.27 and named the winner correctly. The night validated the call - and then some.
called correctly - Jackson won, as projected
county-leader accuracy (136 of 158 reporting counties)
the model under-rated Jackson - he ran ahead of our county projections
- →We projected Jackson +2.27; he won by +4.6. We called a win - he delivered a clearer one.
- →Turnout-weighted, Jackson ran +3.1 points ahead of our county-level projections.
- →Over-performance concentrated in NW Georgia and the exurbs - he flipped several counties the model had as Jones (Floyd, Gordon, Coweta).
The metro firewall held.
Jackson's path ran through the high-turnout Atlanta-metro ring - and it delivered every big county.
He also outperformed and flipped counties the model had as Jones (Floyd, Gordon, Coweta) - over-performance concentrated in NW Georgia and the exurbs.
Targeted GOTV, where it mattered.
We deployed targeted GOTV texting with VictoryText, leaning hardest into Jackson's strongholds - Cobb (the flagship), Cherokee, Forsyth, Chatham. Volume tracked county turnout well, and those are exactly the counties that delivered the win.
counties reached with targeted GOTV texting
correlation of text volume to county turnout
Cobb · Cherokee · Forsyth · Chatham
Where the general gets won.
The runoff data points to a clear general-election deploy plan. The biggest opportunity: lean harder into the high-turnout metro counties we under-saturated in the runoff - they're where the votes are and where we had room to grow.
And redirect spend away from small, already-decided South-GA counties (Lowndes, Colquitt, Thomas) where heavy texting couldn't move a lost result.
Everything above came from one data fabric - live Secretary-of-State results, our Victory Modeling call, and our VictoryText deployments, fused on a single county key. The same system ran the live broadcast (a county-by-county results board on YouTube, zero failures all night) and produced this retrospective. Real-time and after-action, from one source of truth.
Want this running for your race?
The same fabric that called this one - live results, modeling, and ground game on one county key - built on the platform, owned by you.